Do pool systems really help to win pools?

Soccer group systems really work if they are based on solid statistical analysis. Why do systems work? Simply because the performance of soccer teams is not random in the long run: teams actually play in general to train.

There are two parts to solving the problem of how to win football pools. The first is statistical analysis: the system designer will have looked at past team and match results, and will then produce a mathematical model that explains the results to a reasonable degree of accuracy and allows predictions to be made on that basis.

In reality, the precision only needs to be slightly better than random. In roulette, the casino makes money with an advantage of 2-3% in the long run. In football pools, that margin is adequate in the long run, but we would expect to do much better every now and then and win. Of course, we want to win enough to cover the stakes in those weeks we don’t win, so that it becomes a profitable exercise.

The second part of the problem with football pools is coverage. It’s not economical to cover all possible combinations in a 49-game coupon: there are 450 million ways to line up eight tie games. Of course, there may not even be eight tie results on a given coupon. That’s where ‘plans’ and ‘perms’ come in. These are ways of covering, say, 20 selections on a coupon in such a way that when there are between 12 and 15 tie results in a given coupon, then we can have a reasonable expectation of winning if we have chosen, say, six or eight of those . raffles. In a nutshell, the plan can cover all 20 selections in such a way that 25,000 possible combinations of 8 matches are wagered. This lowers the odds significantly.

There are several systems available. Some are described in books available, for example from Amazon; others can be downloaded online; spreadsheets are available; there is software There are books that specialize in ‘perms’ and software that does too. Therefore, a great choice for those who are prepared to investigate.

However, the whole process is based on solid prediction of match results. To do that (assuming you can’t afford to bet thousands of pounds or dollars on a regular basis), after having bought a system, the user has to work to maintain the basic data on which the analysis is based. There are organizations that offer advice, and there are complete sets of match data and predictions available online (usually by subscription only). If the bettor of the pools does not wish to subscribe, several hours of work will be required to prepare each entry.

The last key point is that to be successful in this field, persistence is important: that a week in which an entry is skipped may be the week that would have been the winner. After all, we are working on a statistical basis.

In conclusion, football pool systems can work if they are well designed and used correctly (that means working by the numbers and not allowing one’s views on the likely outcome of a match to affect selections). If you are considering a system, then any reputable system should be prepared to demonstrate a successful record of results.