Horse Racing Handicap Lesson 3 – Which races are the most predictable?

When trying to make a living betting on horses, or just trying to have a good day once in a while, the issue of predictability comes up. The reason for this is that as well as getting good odds on everything you bet, you also need to win often enough to keep your bankroll. Predictability and fair odds go hand in hand when it comes to making money by picking winners.

Some people think that the maiden races are the least predictable because the horses are young and many have little or no racing experience. The stats tell a different story, at least the winning percentage of the favourites. The winning percentage for the favourites, as well as the average odds for all winners, is a good indicator of how predictable or faithful racing is at any given track.

Taking a look at a circuit like Florida, for example, you have the highest purses and big-name trainers at a big track like Gulfstream and smaller purses and lesser-known trainers at a track like Tampa Bay. Both tracks are good tracks and you can enjoy racing on either of them. Some people say that Gulfstream is a better place to make money betting on horses, while others like Tampa Bay.

The bags are smaller in Tampa Bay and therefore the quality of the horses is lower, but the horses in the races in Tampa Bay are about as close as the horses in Gulfstream Park. In other words, the races are just as controversial and fun for the handicapped and to watch.

However, you will find more chances to win in Tampa Bay that may or may not appeal to you. The reason for this is that the smaller the bags, and therefore the lower the quality of the horses, the more likely a move by the trainer will improve the horse. I know a lot of people will disagree with me, but that’s my opinion and I’ve been playing both tracks for years.

The best trainers who train at Gulfstream source some of the best horses in the country. Those horses are fitter and in better shape than the horses in Tampa Bay. If you have a horse that can compete in the $50,000 claim ranges, don’t race it in Tampa Bay. His horse is simply better than those horses and so he drives it at Gulfstream for higher prizes. When horses have fewer flaws and more skill, in my opinion, they are more predictable.

Now, before you Tampa Bay fans prepare the lynch mob to hang this old horse player, let me tell you that his track is a good track and racing is controversial. From a handicap point of view, if you are looking for good gains and are smart enough to see the trainer’s moves, you can find those races at TB very profitable.

When it comes to handicapping in horse racing, predictability and profitability are not always the same thing. You must be able to predict outcomes better than the crowd. A lot of people trying to race handicap at TB expect those horses to be as true to form as the GP horses. There are some very good trainers at TB who are experts at figuring out what’s going on with a horse and making adjustments to equipment and training and getting a win at a good price.

So what I am saying is that higher purses and higher quality horses make races more predictable, but predictability and profitability are not always the same when betting on horses. If you are good enough to understand trainers and how they are successful at what they do, you may find a smaller track like Tampa Bay more to your liking. On the other hand, if you need more predictability and are willing to sacrifice and accept lower odds on your winners, Gulfstream Park has good racing too.