Soccer Betting – How to Select 3 Draws or 5 Away – Part 1
In general, most football teams perform according to their recent results history. This means that, in general, they will tend to lose against better teams and win against poorer teams. The quality of the teams is reflected in their position in the league, when the season has stabilized and ‘all other things being equal’.
Now, we could take the basic league positions as a guide for form, but this can change from day to day for reasons unrelated to the team itself, for example other teams’ results. Therefore, we need to have a slightly more sophisticated system for evaluating team performance that takes into account recent results (but how recent?). That’s the first part.
So we need a way to assess each match in advance to arrive at a likely outcome, ideally being able to put a number on it so we can compare one match against another and decide which is more likely to be a home win, a draw or an away win. From home. In this way we can arrive at a ranking for each of the 49 matches of a British coupon (which, of course, may cover Australian Rules football matches during the British summer). That is the second part.
The analysis of the 2009-2010 season of British football gives us an idea of what the average results are. Throughout the season (40 coupon groups), 45% of games were home wins, 26% were away wins, and 27% were draws (draws with scores and no scores combined).
So, with a measure of team performance, a way to compare matches, and previous stats, we can start to ‘locate’ and where the draws (or, for that matter, home and away, if that’s your preference) might be. of bets). ).
In general, these are just averages – each week will be different and there will be some unexpected results.
Therefore, to maximize our chances of winning, either at triple odds or fixed odds, we need a method of allocating our bets. We do this through plans or permanents, which allow us to cover many combinations. After all, forecasting 3 draws out of 49 games at random is a pretty long shot (odds are over 18,000 to 1). In a 10-horse race, you have 10/1 odds of picking the winner. With fixed odds betting, the bookmaker will have adjusted the payout odds to take into account (initially) likely outcomes, and the odds will vary depending on bets placed by other punters. So while in practice we could bet, say, 10 cents a combination, it’s a big bet for 18,000 lines and we wouldn’t cover it with a win due to the fixed odds (even if the bookmaker accepted the bet), although it would probably have many winning lines if there were, say, 8 ties in the results.
However, if we were to place a bet on 3 draws out of 10 (120 spreads) or 5 matches out of 10 (252 spreads), we would probably get much better odds. This is because the odds are much higher; however, if we choose our 10 draw forecast carefully, then we can lower the odds considerably and still have the chance of multiple winning lines and profit.
(c) Phil Trademarks 2010