Economy – China’s economy got off to an unexpectedly strong start to the year

The Chinese economy got off to an unexpectedly strong start to the year. The industry produced 35.1 percent more in January and February than in the first two months of the previous year, which was marked by the Corona crisis, while retailers also had 33.8 percent more in their coffers. The economists’ expectations were exceeded in each case, as was the pre-crisis level of January / February 2019.

The statistics office warned on Monday after the publication of the data of excessive economic optimism. “Covid-19 is still spreading around the world, the global economic conditions are complex and difficult,” said spokeswoman Liu Aihua. “Domestically, too, the imbalances in the recovery are fairly evident.” The unemployment rate rose from 5.2 to 5.5 percent in February.

The world’s second-largest economy after the USA will grow by a strong 7.8 percent this year, according to a forecast by the industrialized nations organization OECD, after being the only large country to grow in 2020 despite the corona crisis. The export world champion is benefiting from the strong demand for its products in the corona pandemic – from medical equipment to computers for the home office. Domestically, the corona crisis is largely under control, apart from minor local outbreaks, which in turn allows shops and restaurants to be open.

The economic recovery should continue

“We are positive about the development of exports and investments this year,” said economist Louis Kuijs from Oxford Economics. “And we assume that private consumption will become a growth driver from the second quarter onwards.” The consumer climate is brightening, while the government is no longer restricting travel within the country as severely as it has before.

“All in all, the Chinese economy has so far recovered well from the Corona crisis,” wrote Commerzbank economists Hao Zhou and Marco Wagner in an analysis. The recovery is likely to continue given the advancing vaccinations and milder weather, which should further reduce infection levels. “It is clear that as the recovery progresses, its dynamism will also subside,” said the two economists. “This should also be a consequence of the normalization of financial and monetary policy.” From now on, the government is likely to pay more attention to corporate debt. (Reuters)